On Monday, football coaches around Bastrop County will learn their fate as the University Interscholastic League will announce its biennial redistricting.
It’s almost certain, Bastrop will return to Class 4A after a eight year stint in Class 5A.
The Bears may rekindle an old rivalry with Elgin, if things fall into place.
“Staying local makes a lot of sense,” said Bastrop athletic director Gerald Perry. “I personally think we will slide into a district with Elgin, Hays, Lockhart and Manor, but really you don’t know until it’s announced. You can speculate as much as you want, but 99 percent of the time you’re wrong.”
According to the Padilla predictions, Bastrop and Elgin won’t be placed into the same district.
Carl Padilla, who is the operator of the Padilla Poll ratings, is known for being fairly close to what will happen on Feb. 1.
If his predictions are true, Bastrop will end up in a district with defending Class 4A state champion Lake Travis, Dripping Springs, Hays, Lockhart and Lehman.
Perry, however, doesn’t think that will happen.
“Lake Travis is right there next to all of the Cedar Park schools,” Perry said. “I don’t see them coming all the way over here and having to travel that distance.”
Padilla has Elgin and Manor joining a district with Austin ISD schools Lanier, Crockett, Travis, McCallum and LBJ.
However, with Pflugerville ISD schools Connally and Hendrickson being nearby, the Wildcats might end up with Bastrop.
“I have heard 2-or-3 different deals,” said Elgin athletic director Danny Lauve. “The biggest deal for us is that with our enrollment, we are one of the smallest schools in Class 4A. Traditionally we have been with the Austin schools, but you really have no idea what the UIL is going to do.”
Traditionally, the cutoff numbers for classifications have gone up. This year, however, Padilla predicts those numbers will go down due to the UIL splitting Class 2A and 1A into two separate divisions.
The cutoff number is important because San Marcos and Seguin, which turned in enrollment numbers of 2,086 and 2,095, respectively, are sitting on the fence between Class 5A and 4A.
If both schools stay in Class 4A, look for San Marcos and Seguin to join Bastrop in a district with Hays, Lehman, Lockhart, Elgin and Manor.
It would put together a eight-team district and fill a void left by Del Valle, which is expected to go up to Class 5A.
Either way it has Lauve and Perry feeling anxious about Monday.
“Your always anxious when it comes to redistricting,” Perry said. “It’s always a neat time in Texas and a lot of our non-district games are based on what happens on Monday.”
One coach that isn’t really concerned about Monday’s redistricting is Smithville athletic director Justin Wiley.
“I don’t have any control over it, so I don’t worry about it,” Wiley said. “If we lose Bellville and Sealy, we will more than likely pick up Gonzaels and Cuero. Everyone is good around here.”
Padilla predicts Smithville’s current district will stay the way it is with Smithville, La Grange, Giddings, Bellville, Sealy and Columbus.
Wiley said he thinks it will more than likely be Smithville, Giddings, La Grange, Columbus, Cuero and Gonzales.

PREDICTIONS
Here is a look at how sports editor Michael Adams sees it all playing out:

District 26-4A
Bastrop
Elgin
Hays
Lockhart
Lehman
Manor
San Marcos
Seguin

District 25-3A
Smithville
Giddings
Gonzales
La Grange
Columbus
Cuero

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Padilla Predictions
Carl Padilla, the operator of the Padilla Poll ratings, has issued his predications for the upcoming realignment that takes place Feb. 1. Padilla is infamous for his predictions being fairly close to what the UIL actually releases.

District 25-4A
Cedar Park
CP Vandergrift
CP Vista Ridge
Hutto
Leander Rouse
Marble Falls
Connally
Hendrickson

District 26-4A
Austin Crockett
Austin LBJ
Austin Lanier
Austin McCallum
Austin Travis
Elgin
Manor

Austin 27-4A
Bastrop
Hays
Dripping Springs
Kyle Lehman
Lake Travis
Lockhart

District 25-3A
Sealy
Bellville
Columbus
Giddings
La Grange
Smithville

NUMBERS GAME
It’s all about the numbers when talking about redistricting. Traditionally, the UIL has always increased the cutoff numbers for each classification. The cutoff numbers might drop this time around, however. Here is a historical look at the cutoff numbers:

Projected 2010 Range
Class 5A    2,059-above
Class 4A    1,042-2,058
Class 3A    433-1,035
Class 2A, Div. I    300-432
Class 2A, Div. II    211-297
Class 1A, Div. I    153-210
Class 1A, Div. II    152-below

Projected up from Class 4A: San Marcos (2,086) Del Valle, Seguin (2,095)

Projected down from Class 5A: Bastrop, Cedar Park, Cedar Park Vista Ridge, Connallly

2008 Range
Class 5A    2,085-above
Class 4A    980-2,084
Class 3A    430-979
Class 2A    200-429
Class 1A    199-below

2006 Range
Class 5A    1,985-above
Class 4A    950-1,984
Class 3A    415-949
Class 2A    194-414
Class 1A    194-below

2004 Range
Class 5A    1,925-above
Class 4A    900-1,924
Class 3A    390-899
Class 2A    190-389
Class 1A    189-below